Take

Did I mention that Oracle took on $56 billion of debt to build data centers specifically for OpenAI? Or that the banks who invested in these deals don’t seem to be able to sell off the debt?

• Oracle’s stock is tied to the company “Oracle,” which is currently destroying its margins and annihilating its available cash to buy GPUs to serve a customer that cannot afford to pay it.
• Oracle has taken on ruinous debt that can only be paid if this customer, which cannot afford it and needs to raise money from an already-depleted venture capital pool, actually pays it.

[..]

• Larry Ellison’s entire financial future is based on whether OpenAI lives or dies. If it dies, there isn’t another entity in the universe that can actually afford (or has interest in) the scale of the compute Oracle is building.

[..]

We are setting up for a very funny and chaotic situation where Oracle simply runs out of money, and in the process blows up Larry Ellison’s fortune. However much influence Ellison might have with the administration, Oracle has burdened itself with debt and $248 billion in data center lease obligations — costs that are inevitable, and are already crushing the life out of the company (and the stock).

The only way out is if OpenAI becomes literally the most-successful cash-generating company of all time within the next two years, and that’s being generous.

I am having difficulty deciding if the more desirable outcome is Oracle collapsing or Larry Ellison receiving a gut punch. I'm under no illusions that Larry Ellison will go barrel-and-suspenders broke under any scenario (and am enough of a functioning human to not wish that fate on anyone), but whatever misfortune is headed his way has accumulated over decades and is entirely proportionate.